2018 China Carbon Pricing Survey

2018 China Carbon Pricing Survey

Publish Date:
Nov 12, 2018

This report summarises the results of the 2018 China Carbon Pricing Survey. During April 2018, the survey elicited expectations about China’s future carbon price from stakeholders in carbon markets. Through cooperation with industrial associations, strong efforts were made to survey representatives from China’s carbon-intensive industries, including power, cement, and aluminum, which are already, or soon expected to be, subject to carbon pricing. The results give strong confidence that carbon price levels in China will rise over time, and that carbon pricing will increasingly affect investment decisions. The Chinese government launched its development plan for a national emissions trading system (ETS) in late 2017. However, on average, the survey respondents expect that it could take until at least 2020 before the system is fully functional. In the months leading up to the national ETS, significant capacity building was conducted, but much more is needed. A large majority of respondents prefer a strong legal basis for the ETS from its initial phase, with at least a State Council regulation in place. ETS is expected to become the most important policy instrument to motivate companies to reduce GHG emissions in the coming decade. There is strong confidence that China will meet its target to peak emissions by 2030. Many expect that the peak will come significantly earlier.

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